Edo 2024: A Barometer for Measuring Commitment to Electoral Integrity

Introduction

On September 21, 2024, eligible voters in Edo State will head to the polls to elect their governor in an election marked by high stakes, potential violence and logistical challenges. The election is conducted in a climate of economic hardship, security volatility and distrust in state institutions and the electoral process. Yiaga Africa’s pre-election assessment identifies three critical tests that will shape this election: an impartiality test for security agencies, a resilience test for citizens, and an integrity test for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The voter registration data for this election indicate a significant increase in voter engagement compared to the previous election in 2020. A total of 2,629,025 voters have registered, indicating a 19% increase from the 2,210,535 registered in 2020. Of these, 2,249,780 individuals (85.57% of registered voters) have collected their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs), indicating a high level of interest among the electorate to participate in this crucial election.

According to INEC, eighteen parties are on the ballot, having fulfilled all conditions for candidates’ nomination. Yiaga Africa noted in its pre-election observation reports that the electoral campaigns had been largely dominated by three major parties: All Progressive Congress (APC), the Labour Party, and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The campaigns, however, devolved into a contest marked by personal attacks, character assassination, hate speech, and ‘blame-game politics’, particularly between the major contenders. The parties relegated issue-based politics and opted for divisive rhetoric and strongarm tactics, potentially inflaming tensions and deepening divisions among the electorate.

Additionally, Yiaga Africa commends the peacebuilding efforts led by the National Peace Committee. The Peace Accord, signed by political parties and candidates, is an essential step toward ensuring a peaceful and violence-free election. Yiaga Africa urges all parties and candidates to honour the commitments to the Peace Accord, emphasising the importance of conducting the election in an atmosphere of tolerance and respect for democratic principles.

Key Pre-election Observations

1. INEC preparedness for the election: Yiaga Africa has monitored INEC’s preparations for the election. INEC has undertaken several key activities in the lead-up to the election, including training its personnel and deploying both non-sensitive and sensitive materials necessary for the electoral process. Furthermore, INEC conducted a mock accreditation exercise to test the functionality of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Results Viewing Portal (IReV), both of which are crucial for ensuring the credibility and transparency of the election. Despite these efforts, Yiaga Africa noted a disappointingly low turnout for the mock accreditation exercise. This low participation raises concerns about public awareness and engagement with the electoral process, as effective voter accreditation is essential to prevent fraud and ensure that the election results reflect the true will of the electorate. However, Yiaga Africa commends INEC for the release of voter registration and Permanent Voter’s Card (PVC) collection rates at the polling unit level, as this transparency is vital for building public trust in the electoral process.
2. Deployment of Election Materials: Yiaga Africa acknowledges the ongoing deployment of sensitive election materials to the LGAs. As this process begins, Yiaga Africa urges INEC to coordinate effectively with the transport companies and unions responsible for logistics. This coordination is crucial for the timely deployment of materials not only to the Registration Area Centers (RACs) but also to ensure early delivery of materials and personnel to polling units on election day.  This will reverse the trend of late commencement of polls observed in previous elections in Edo state. Yiaga Africa also calls on the transport unions not to exploit the hike in fuel prices to default in their contractual obligations with INEC.
3. Potential election manipulation through violence: Yiaga Africa notes the tense and volatile political climate for the election. The campaign period was signposted with strongarm tactics and violence. The activities of cult groups and political thugs intensified amidst the proliferation of small and light arms. Yiaga Africa is concerned that politicians will tactically employ violence and intimidation to suppress voters in specific polling units and LGAs. Additionally, armed groups and political thugs may disrupt INEC’s deployment of election material or elections at the polling units to influence the outcome of the elections. Yiaga Africa has identified eight (8) LGAs as hotspots for violence. They include, Ikpoba/Okha, Oredo, Egor, Ovia South West, Ovia North East, Esan South East, Etsako West and Etsako East. The volatile security environment in these LGAs necessitates a strategic and neutral deployment of security forces.
4. Voter Inducement and Potential Vote Buying on Election Day: Yiaga Africa observed multiple instances of voter inducement during the pre-election campaign period in Edo State. Political parties and politicians continue to distribute cash, gifts, and food items to entice voters. These monetary gifts, ranging from N1,000 to N2,000, raise serious concerns about the credibility of the electoral process. These practices of voter inducement undermine the integrity of the electoral process, as they can distort the free will of the electorate and compromise the democratic principle of free and fair elections. Yiaga Africa is concerned that this practice may extend to election day, turning polling units to the epicenter of vote buying. Voters should be allowed to make voting decisions based on informed judgment rather than material incentives.
5. Expected Decline in Voter Turnout: While the high rate of Permanent Voter’s Card (PVC) collection indicates a willingness among the electorate to participate, several factors may contribute to continued low voter turnout. Concerns over potential violence, economic hardship, and a deep-seated lack of confidence in the electoral process could deter voters from voting. Past elections in Edo State reflect this trend, with voter turnout declining from 32% in 2016 to 27% in 2020, marking an 8% decrease. Additionally, widespread disillusionment with political elites and persistent governance failures may further discourage voter participation.

Pre-Election Recommendations

Voters

1. Yiaga Africa urges the voters to demonstrate resilience by turning up to vote in the polling units. Voters should also resist attempts at vote-buying, intimidation, and manipulation before, during and after the election.

Independent National Electoral Commission

2. Yiaga Africa calls on INEC to demonstrate its capacity to conduct a transparent, credible, and efficient election by managing logistics effectively to enable early commencement of voting across all polling units. 
3. To safeguard the transparency of the results collation at all levels, INEC should establish a robust oversight mechanism for collation officers, ensuring accountability and granting access to accredited party agents, election observers, and media personnel at result collation centres.
4. INEC must also maintain consistency in applying its guidelines, particularly regarding the suspension of elections due to significant disruptions, the cancellation of votes in cases of overvoting, and the application of the margin of lead principle.
5. INEC should ensure proper and timely communication with stakeholders on the election day process, communicate challenges experienced, and share immediate plans to address those challenges to inspire citizens’ confidence in the process.

Security agencies

6. Yiaga Africa calls on security agencies to ensure that all deployed personnel strictly adhere to the code of conduct for election security. This includes acting professionally without bias, apprehending electoral offenders, and respecting the rights of citizens, media, and observers. They must also guarantee that accredited observers and media practitioners have the right to free movement on Election Day.

Political parties and candidates

7. Political parties, candidates, and their supporters should show commitment to electoral accountability by respecting the rules governing the conduct of the elections, refraining from deploying violence, and winning the election at all costs. 

8. Political parties, candidates, and their supporters must refrain from vote buying and the related practice of compromising the secrecy of the ballot so that the voters of Edo state are free to vote according to their preference for governor.

Yiaga Africa Watching The Vote Deployment Plan for the 2024 Governorship Elections.

On election day, Yiaga Africa will deploy 325 trained and accredited observers, both stationary and roving, to monitor the conduct of the Edo State Governorship election. This includes 300 stationary observers who will be placed at a randomly selected sample of 300 polling units across the 18 LGAs, using the Process & Results Verification for Transparency (PRVT) methodology. At the end of polls, Yiaga Africa observers will deploy to all LGAs and State’s results collation centres to observe and report the results collation process. This deployment will enable Yiaga Africa to provide the most timely and accurate information on the governorship elections in the state.

Using the PRVT, Yiaga Africa will also provide an independent projection of voter turnout and estimate the vote shares that each party should receive within a narrow range. If the official results fall within Yiaga Africa’s estimated ranges, it will affirm the accuracy of the ballots cast at the polling units.

While only INEC has the legal authority to announce election results, Yiaga Africa will hold a result verification press conference following INEC’s official announcement to discuss the accuracy of the results. The PRVT methodology, regarded as the gold standard in citizen election observation, utilises information and communication technology alongside statistical principles. Yiaga Africa has successfully deployed this methodology in previous elections, including the 2019 and 2023 Presidential elections and 16 State Governorship Elections.

Yiaga Africa is committed to objective, nonpartisan, and credible election observation. Watching the Vote is “Driven by Data—For All Nigerians—Beholden to None!”

Thank you and God Bless the people of Edo State!

Dr. Aisha Abdullahi                                                                         Samson Itodo

Chair of the 2024 Edo Election Mission                                            Executive Director

Yiaga Africa                                                                                       Yiaga Africa    

For media inquiries, please contact Jennifer Dafwat, Media Officer, Yiaga Africa Tel. +234 (0) 806 899 5644, Email: jdfwat@yiaga.org. Learn more about #WatchingTheVote at www.watchingthevote.org or on social media on Facebook at facebook.com/yiaga.org or on Twitter @YIAGA.